The May CPI data out of the US came in much hotter than expected. Most analysts had expected year over year inflation to hit 8.3% but instead flew right past that to a new 40 year high of 8.6% (highest since 1981). The inflation numbers are being led by food and energy prices, which even when excluded; still puts inflation at an eye watering 6% year over year. Canadian energy and mining stocks declined as commodities fell after China imposed new lockdowns in parts of Shanghai, lowering the demand outlook. U.S. stocks also fell for a second day as concerns grew after Europe’s central bank became the latest to signal restrictive policies to combat inflation. The ECB made no change to the deposit rate, which was widely anticipated, but is preparing to hike by a quarter-point next month, and again by either that amount or more if inflation persists. In Canada the labour force survey was released today and showed a concerning increase in private sector unemployment (up 2%) and a shift to public sector jobs – an increase of 11%.

On Wednesday, May 18, Statistics Canada released April’s inflation report with a year-over-year increase of 6.8%, increasing marginally from the 6.7% recorded in March 2022. This new 31-year high deviated from economists' expectations of a slight decrease from last month. This begs the question, are we seeing the peak of this challenging inflationary environment or will it continue to edge higher?

This year has been extremely difficult for global stock as markets have struggled with inflation fears, rising interest rates, the Russia-Ukraine War, and lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In North America, every major index is negative on the year. The TSX is the breadwinner with a whopping -7.24% return YTD and the biggest loser being the NASDAQ at -27.32%.

The Federal Reserve announced its second rate hike of 2022 to increase the benchmark interest rate from 0.50% to 1.00%. This is the first 50 basis point hike since 2000 and the first time the central bank raised rates in back-to-back meetings since 2006.

You may have heard economists talking about the risk of “stagflation” following news the US economy shrank in the first quarter of 2022. But what is stagflation exactly and should you be worried?